Even as the benchmark and broader indices were down sharply on Monday due to escalating tensions in West Asia, the Nifty Defence index ended the session in the green.
This is the second-worst performance by the pack during this period over the last five years since CY20.
Stock markets closed higher for the second straight session on Tuesday, driven by gains in bank, IT and capital goods shares.
'The problem is not just slower growth, but also the quality of growth.'
From the 30-Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics surged nearly 9 per cent post its December quarter earnings. Eternal, Bajaj Finance, Power Grid, Trent, Mahindra & Mahindra and UltraTech Cement were the other major gainers. Maruti, Sun Pharma, Infosys and Bharti Airtel were among the other laggards.
There are vexing questions around the disconnect between Nifty returns and portfolio returns, between economic growth and earnings growth, and finally, between earnings growth and market returns, points out Debashis Basu.
Only experienced investors with a high risk appetite, a grasp of market cycles, and comfort with volatility and timing risk should invest.
'Trading without strict position sizing, stop-loss discipline, or a clear exit plan almost guarantees losses.' 'Chasing tips, reacting to intraday noise, or assuming frequent trading improves outcomes are equally damaging habits.'
The rupee slumped 5 per cent in 2025 as persistent capital outflows from foreign investors, alongside heightened dollar demand from importers, making it one of the worst-performing Asian currencies.
'Defence, capital goods, engineering, capital market-related stocks, autos, and cement sectors are my bullish bets for Samvat 2082.'
Among Sensex firms, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, Eternal, State Bank of India, Tata Steel and HDFC Bank were the major gainers. However, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharat Electronics, Infosys and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards.
Goldman Sachs is bullish about Indian aerospace and defence, preferring private companies over public sector units (PSUs) as the country ramps up its export target for the sector to Rs 50,000 crore by FY29 from Rs 23,600 crore last year. The American investment bank's top 'buy' recommendations include Solar Industries, Bharat Electronics, Data Patterns and PTC Industries, while Bharat Dynamics is rated 'sell'.
From the Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, HCL Tech, Tata Motors, Nestle, ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Larsen & Toubro, and Tech Mahindra were the biggest gainers. In contrast, Eternal, UltraTech Cement, Power Grid, Tata Steel and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the laggards. Eternal dropped 4.51 per cent.
'The primary market's rhythm mirrors investor confidence. While sentiment may appear cautious, it reflects maturity, not weakness.'
Defence stocks have been on a tear, with the Nifty India Defence index hitting all-time highs. Over the past week, the index jumped around 7 per cent, far outpacing the flat performance of the Nifty 50. Over the past month, its 12 per cent gain has trebled the benchmark's return.
From the Sensex firms, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finserv, Asian Paints, Power Grid and State Bank of India were among the laggards. Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, Titan, HCL Tech, Tata Motors, Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services were the gainers.
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'The hearing is not adversarial but inquisitorial in nature -- it allows Sebi to examine the context, the strategy, and the intent behind the trades, particularly when algorithmic and expiry-day trading are involved.'
Equity markets this week will turn their focus on the RBI's interest rate decision, Q1 earnings from several blue-chip firms and tariff-related news for further cues, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of foreign investors and trends in global equity markets will also drive investors' sentiment.
'The investigation is at a very critical stage. We are not going to give every single document.'
'Market corrections are a natural part of investing, so it's essential to remain focused on long-term financial goals.'
'The universe of PSU stocks is huge and diverse.' 'Investors should bet on specific sectors and stocks from the basket as most of them may continue to consolidate after years of outperformance.'
Defence exports grew 33 per cent in the calendar year 2023 (CY23) to around Rs 21,083 crore while domestic defence orders serviced by listed companies were Rs 48,000 crore. The sector is poised for steady growth. Budgeted domestic capex is likely to hit Rs 3 trillion per annum, and exports could reach $6 billion by FY29.
Among Sensex firms, Eternal, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, Adani Ports, NTPC, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, Axis Bank and Sun Pharma were the major losers. Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle and Maruti were among the gainers.
Movement in the equity market this week will be guided by a host of macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Stocks markets concluded the last week on a subdued note, as investors grappled with global uncertainties.
With an expected earnings growth of 15 per cent, benchmark index Nifty 50 may hit 24,500 level by December 2024 and move further to surpass the level of 26,500 by December 2025, Emkay Investment Managers said on Tuesday. The 50-share Nifty settled at 22,888.15 on Tuesday. In the previous day, it hit a new lifetime peak of 23,110.80.
The stocks are largely from sectors such as chemicals, finance and cement, which struggled earlier but the worse seems to be behind them.
10 largecaps stocks which stand to gain from the Budget.
Very often, 'sentiment' drives prices well beyond what is warranted and it is hard to forecast market sentiment, explains Debashis Basu.
Market reaction to the Union Budget was overall neutral. The income tax "gift" wasn't enough to move the needle. There was some apparent rationalisation of Customs duty structure as well as cuts on import duties of some key components for the telecom and IT industry and duty cuts on vehicle imports. Other proposals related to development of agriculture and rural economy and renewables seem to be generally positive.
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
In an eventful week ahead, stock market investors will take cues from major events like the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the upcoming Union Budget and Q3 earnings, analysts said.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
Dalal Street minnows stole the show in 2024, giving handsome returns to investors, helped by a largely optimistic trend in the stock market and impressive retail investors' participation. Analysts attributed the positive trend in the equity markets, where the benchmark indices shattered many records this year, to robust domestic liquidity, strong fundamentals of the Indian economy, and policy continuity.
The last year has seen public sector undertakings (PSUs) outperforming the Nifty50, albeit by a small degree. But PSU valuations are still, on average, less than half of private sector peers at price-to-equity or PE 8.7x for the Nifty PSU Index versus 20.9x for the Nifty50. There are several reasons for lower valuation.
'Those betting against PSUs will likely be punished in this upswing.'
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
'Investors should consider small and midcaps only if they can handle volatility and have a longer investment horizon.'
Overall market reaction to the Budget was neutral. Investors absorbed the changes to the tax rates (positive for salaried class) and capital gains taxes (CGTs, negative due to the removal of indexation and increases. Other proposals largely pertain to supporting rural development, buybacks taxed as dividends, Custom duty changes that impact multiple sectors, higher outlays for clean energy, etc. There's some moderation in the growth of capex outlay across defence, fer
'Not paying workers enough will end up being self-destructive or harmful for the corporate sector itself.'
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